A RECENT update to the nation’s winter crop harvest outlook has taken a more positive turn on the back of recent rainfall and resulting soil moisture levels.
Covered in the most recent RaboResearch podcast, titled Australia’s 2026/27 crop update: from a late, dry start to strong prospects, Rabobank’s senior grains and oilseeds analyst Vitor Pistoia said the rains had positively impacted a number of growing regions.
“The models and the feeling and the vibe really changed here in the country,” he said. “We are potentially going for an average season now; no longer below average.
“Things do change. A few months ago, this season was looking like it could be below average.
“Now, if spring can do enough of the job, Australia has the potential to print big numbers again.”
While conditions had improved in South Australia, and Victoria’s west and north-west, the outlook was less positive in parts of New South Wales and Queensland.
Mr Pistoia said with places like the Griffith growing region already suffering from low soil moisture going into winter, a lot would come down to spring rainfall.
“If the tap turns off, then it won’t be so pretty,” he said.
“If average to above-average rainfall arrives, those regions can still be looking very good towards the end of the season.”
While the increase in harvest volume was a possibility, that hasn’t flowed through to the futures markets.
Global wheat prices were being impacted by a good growing season in the Northern Hemisphere.
“There is plenty of barley and canola also, and that will play heavily with the price outlook,” Mr Pistoia said.
“The major watch now is grain filling; if spring holds, Australia can move from a below-average concern to a much more constructive production story.”